2016 Fantasy Football Busts & Surprises

Reviewing The Unpredictable 2016 Season

Fantasy Football has grown to immense popularity in the United States. Thus far we’ve had 12 weeks of NFL action under our belts. There are two games left in the Fantasy Football regular season for most leagues. Did an unlikely player carry your team to playoff contention? Or did an injury or poor play cost your a few games earlier in the season? Fantasy Football is always unpredictable in nature. Let’s dig a bit deeper and see which gems have shined the brightest, and which stars disappeared off the map.

We have broken down it down to two main categories. Busts that killed the team that drafted them or simply didn’t live up to their hype in 2016. And then we have the unexpected gems, these are the guys that single handily win you games after being drafted low. We are leaving out the typical scoring leaders that dominate yearly such as Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones. We’ve come to expect such names to put up points worthy of their place in the draft, so there is not much need to mention them.

Busts That Killed Their Teams Or Didn’t Live Up To The Hype

• Adrian Peterson: An automatic first round draft pick, AP was selected in the top 5 in a lot of leagues. He played the first two games of the season before injuring his right knee and missing the remainder of the season. He produced 50 yards and 0 touchdowns as his final stat line.

• Eddie Lacy: Lacy was being drafted late first round/early second round in most standard leagues. Many some the weight loss from last year as a positive sign. With a Hall of Fame QB under center, Lacy had the tools for a 1,000 yard plus season. Somehow he has only managed 360 yards and 0 touchdowns in five games before hurting his ankle and missing the rest of the season.

• Cam Newton: Last year Cam Newton was a beast during Carolina’s 15-1 season. He threw for over 3,800 yards and 35 touchdowns. He also ran for over 600 yards with 10 rushing touchdowns. Quite impressive to have 45 total touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. However, his fortunes changed in 2016, Cam has just managed 13 passing touchdowns and 8 picks. He has yet to reach 300 rushing yards for the season and only has 5 rushing touchdowns. Hardly anyone could predict this sort of regression from the 2015 NFL MVP. Perhaps he needs to bring back the dab!

• Doug Martin: Martin broke into the fantasy scene after a breakout rookie year, followed by two poor seasons. Last year he started to produce at the level we saw as a rookie, as he surpassed 1,400 yards rushing. With Tampa’s offense looking good with emerging star wideout Mike Evans, and 2nd year QB Jameis Winston showing much promise, it was expected that Martin would lead the balanced offense. Thus far, a nagging hamstring injury has limited his productivity to 268 yards and just 1 touchdown.

• Rob Gronkowski: Year after year, Gronk gets drafted in the first round ahead of many great WR’s. At some point, you have to accept the risk that this injury prone tight end’s best year was in 2011, and that was a long time ago. Sure he had a solid year in 2015, but his tough and physical play style make him a fantasy gamble. From week 5 thru 8, he had 473 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. The man is an absolute beast when he is on the field. But due to a hamstring injury, he missed the first few games of the season. And a back injury in the past few weeks has limited Gronk to just 540 yards for the season with 3 touchdowns.

• Blake Bortles & Allen Robinson: Last year Bortles was 23 years old, and Robinson was 22 years old. Bortles threw for over 4,400 yards and had 37 total touchdowns (35 passing & 2 rushing) while Robinson gathered 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. They seemed like the premier young combo-wombo for 2016. Fans were hyped and drafted both of them early on. Then the Jacksonville Jaguars offense completely collapsed this season. Their numbers don’t look absolutely terrible due to points they have scored in garbage time of many games. If it weren’t for that, these two would be bottom tier players for their positions. As of now, Robinson has yet to crack 600 yards and might not even crack 900 yards this year. Bortles might fall short of 4,000 yards and the 30 touchdown plateau he reached last year.

Unexpected Gems

• Derek Carr: The third year QB from Oakland has really escalated his game this year while leading the Raiders to a 9-2 mark. He is on pace for 4,500 yards and 32 touchdowns with just 7 picks. He’s become a top 5 play at QB. Although he had a solid second year, when comparing his path to that of Blake Bortles, one can say that Carr has matured vastly. He is currently a candidate for NFL MVP. Not too shabby for a QB that was being selected in the mid round of most leagues.

• Marcus Mariota: What a year for the second year QB from the Oregon Ducks. His rival Jameis Winston has played well this year. But Marcus is really shining this year. He’s projected to have 4,000 passing yards, and 33 passing touchdowns to go with a few rushing ones and just 11 picks. These are outstanding numbers for a QB that a lot of people picked up from free agency a few weeks into the Fantasy Football season. After week 5, Marcus Mariota is producing numbers at an elite rate that puts him in the top 5 play for QBs.

• Melvin Gordon: The second-year running back had an awful rookie season. Just 3.5 yards per carry and 0 touchdowns for the entire year, some people were starting to place the bust label on him. While many avoided drafting him early, he proved the naysayers wrong. He is currently 4th in rushing yards in the league and tied for 4th most touchdowns. This was the sort of production we expected to see in 2015, but don’t mind that it arrived a year later. It’s incredible how a single offseason can make a big difference in a player’s fantasy fortunes.

• David Johnson: Johnson was a little-known RB drafted in the 3rd round from Nothern Iowa last year. Late in the season, he put up big numbers after Chris Johnson went down. People thought he was just a product of the Cardinals amazing offense and the unknown. Some experts expected him to blow up, but few could imagine he would be leading the NFL in touchdowns in just his 2nd year in the league. David Johnson is dominating rushing the ball and receiving. The dual-threat running back could potentially reach the 20 touchdown threshold, which guarantees him a spot in the Fantasy Hall of Fame as a Legend.

• Ezekiel Elliot: In all honesty, some on the ESPN panel called it and suggested drafting him late first round or early second round. But how many of your buddies actually took the gamble and drafted a rookie RB in the first round? Sure the Dallas Cowboys have an amazing offensive line, but Tony Romo went down prior to a lot of drafts. With a rookie QB under center, Elliot seemed destined to be the new “Melvin Gordon” for 2016. Couldn’t be further from the truth. He is leading the NFL in rushing yards and the Cowboys are cruising to the best record in the NFL at 10-1. Dak Prescott has also been amazing as a rookie QB that doesn’t make mistakes, but Elliot provides fantasy owners a consistent chunk of points every week. He also seems to be a lock for years to come considering he is just 21 years old.

• DeMarco Murray: What a roller coaster it has been for DeMarco Murray. Just two seasons ago, he led the NFL with 1.845 rushing yards (also 13 rushing touchdowns) for the Dallas Cowboys and carried multiple Fantasy teams to championships. Then he signed with the Eagles, had high hopes and expectations, and flopped harder than a LeBron James setting up a screen. With just 700 yards and 6 touchdowns, he let down many draftees that acquired him with a first round pick. So it was no surprise to see him drop to the mid rounds in this year’s draft since he is now playing for the lowly Titans. Who could of imagined that the Titans would become this year’s Jaguars. They have caught everyone off guard. Murray has already cracked 1,000 rushing yards so far with 8 touchdowns. Glad to see someone come back from the near 400 carry curse (392 carries in 2014)

• Jimmy Graham: We haven’t seen a 1,000-yard year from Graham since 2013. The former basketball player from the Miami Hurricanes was a huge end zone target for Drew Brees back in NOLA. Then the unexpected trade occurred last year to the Seahawks. For some odd reason last year, Ciara’s husband refused to look down the middle to hit Jimmy Graham. His receptions were cut in half, his back to back double digit touchdown seasons were reduced to just 2 end zone catches in 2015. But in 2016 would be different. Russell Wilson took Future’s baby mama and started to have eyes for Jimmy from Week 3 and on. Graham is on pace to eclipsed 1,000 yards, and join the conversation of best tight end in the league again.